@InProceedings{GomesRamRemSilChi:2017:StMoEx,
author = "Gomes, Tiago Francisco Pinheiro and Ramos, Fernando and Rempel,
{\'E}rico Luiz and Silva, Suzana and Chian, Abraham C. -L.",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Tecnol{\'o}gico de Aeron{\'a}utica (ITA)} and {Instituto
Tecnol{\'o}gico de Aeron{\'a}utica (ITA)} and {University of
Adelaide}",
title = "Statistical modeling of extreme values and evidence of presence of
Dragon King (DK) in solar wind",
booktitle = "Proceedings...",
year = "2017",
organization = "AGU Fall Meeting",
abstract = "The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system,
presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic
dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems
is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in
several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical
characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This
work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of
the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by
Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is
that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by
the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV)
distributions. Both models present a statistically significant
positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the
probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in
return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence
that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values
of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic
reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic
flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings
(DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are
fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic
reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the
possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon
kings had previously been identified in time series of financial
crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so
on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of
extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition,
bifurcation, crises or tipping points.",
conference-location = "New Orleans",
conference-year = "11-15 Dec.",
language = "en",
targetfile = "gomes_statistical.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}